With the prospect for a Russian invasion to Ukraine looming large, a war could have serious effects also on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The MENA region would be affected by a large-scale confrontation between Russia and Ukraine in two key areas: agriculture, because of possible disruptions of agricultural trade and grain production in the Black Sea basin, and energy, due to expected interruptions of global energy flows. As the ties between Ukraine and the MENA are more complex than may seem at first glance, the regional countries should try to minimize the consequences of any conflict as quickly as possible. When it comes to agriculture, Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia all import large amounts of grain from Russia and Ukraine, and the prospect of conflict puts the supply chain at risk. In particular, countries across the MENA should beware of food price spikes and revolutions if Ukrainian grain deliveries are disrupted, warns Alex Smith, a food and agriculture analyst at the Breakthrough Institute.
Smith says that with some of the most fertile land on Earth, Ukraine has been known as Europe’s breadbasket for centuries, with its fast-growing agricultural exports, from grains to vegetable oils to host of other products, being crucial to feeding populations from Africa to Asia. And since a substantial part of Ukraine’s most productive agricultural land is located in its eastern regions, it is exactly those parts that most vulnerable to a potential Russian attack. For example, about 50% of all wheat consumed in Lebanon in 2020 came from Ukraine, making the country critically dependent on Ukrainian wheat. Of the 14 countries that rely on Ukrainian imports for more than 10% of their wheat consumption, a significant number already face food insecurity from ongoing political instability or outright violence. For example, Yemen and Libya import 22% and 43%, respectively, of their total wheat consumption from Ukraine. Egypt, the largest consumer of Ukrainian wheat, imported more about 14% of its total wheat consumption in 2020 from the east European country.
A possible Russian attack on Ukraine could in turn lead to sharp declines in wheat production and a precipitous fall in wheat exports as farmers flee the fighting, infrastructure and equipment are destroyed, and the region’s economy is paralyzed. Whoever controls the land will ultimately extract its riches, but if conditions in the Russian-controlled eastern parts of Ukraine are any guide, instability and paralysis may lie over the region and seriously impact production far beyond the initial invasion, warns Alex Smith from the Breakthrough Institute. It’s barely been a decade since the Arab Spring, for which rising food prices were the spark that lit the fuse of revolution. Global food prices are already rising along with those of other commodities, and any disruption risks further price shocks as importing countries scramble for supplies in a tightening market. Food insecurity would be exacerbated in the many developing countries that depend on Ukraine for their sustenance. In politically unstable countries such as Libya, Yemen, and Lebanon, additional food price shocks and hunger could easily turn an already bad situation worse.
